Emissions, elections bring out the worst

       Australian politics is turning personal again, with deep animosity between Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and his chief opponent spilling into upper house gridlock on emissions trade laws and speculation about a snap poll.
       Mr Rudd and conservative leader Malcolm Turnbull could barely bring themselves to shake hands at a recent book launch, while a political legacy speech by Mr Rudd was dismissed by Mr Turnbull as the most "graceless and ungracious" talk he had witnessed.
       Mr Turnbull this month called Mr Rudd "breathtakingly dishonest".
       One of Mr Turnbull's senior henchman, Tony Abbott, joined in to describe the bookish prime minister as "timid,smug and partisan", setting up a belligerent fortnight of parliament disrupted daily by an increasingly aggrieved opposition.
       Analysts say the renewed combativeness has its roots in an obstructive upper house Senate's opposition to key Rudd policies, including emissions trade.
       And that combative tone in a centreleft Labor government, that until now has tried to strip partisanship out of politics, could potentially trigger an early election, says Australian National University analyst Norman Abjorensen.
       "We are now entering a pre-election phase and there is a broad strategy here for Mr Rudd's Labor to stamp its brand on everything," Mr Abjorensen said.
       "His intention is to run full term [until the end of 2010]. But events can change and Rudd might decide enough is enough, and let's go. If he sees a significant political advantage, he'll go for it,"he said. The current slanging match is at least a step above past Australian political debates. Former Labor premier Paul Keating described opponents variously as "a shiver waiting for a spine","brain-damaged" or "a dead carcass,swinging in the breeze".
       The current ill feeling may cloud the ability of both sides to negotiate on key climate change laws promised by Mr Rudd, as well as contentious private health reforms to make the wealthy pay more for medical cover.
       "The hard-heads will be trying now to draw a distinction about the reality of political negotiation over theatrical tactics," Mr Abjorensen said."We are seeing a spillover of frustration of opposition,of seeing how powerless you are."
       Voters could go to the polls as early as December if Mr Rudd's much-vaunted emissions trading scheme fails to pass the Senate for a second time in November, handing Mr Rudd a constitutional trigger to call elections in both the upper and lower houses. The conservatives are viscerally divided on the scheme to force 1,000 of Australia's biggest polluting companies to purchase emissions permits, with Mr Turnbull's leadership and preference for negotiation under pressure over the issue.
       Rebel conservative MPs, including a disgruntled former leader who called Mr Turnbull "narcissistic", want Mr Turnbull to reject the scheme and risk an early election against Mr Rudd, whose standing in recent opinion polls is at near-record levels of popularity.
       Mr Rudd was keeping the option of an early election to drive home a message Labor was different, Mr Abjorensen said,while holding the threat of a snap poll over unpopular Mr Turnbull.
       "It's a useful tool, particularly for a government riding high in the polls,"he said.