Monday, August 31, 2009

Puea Thai seeks court ruling on Budget Act

       The Puea Thai Party has asked the Constitution Court to rule if the 2010 Budget Act is unconstitutional.
       The party alleged the government had changed its spending plans without giving any details.
       Puea Thai MP for Chiang Mai Surapong Towijakchaikul yesterday filed the request with Chavana Traimas, the secretary-general to the Office of the Constitution Court.
       Mr Surapong claimed the government changed the spending plans without providing any details after the House committee scrutinising the budget bill had finished its second and third readings of the bill.
       His party asked the court to rule if the changes violated Article 167 of the constitution. The article requires details of all spending plans.
       Mr Chavana said the Office of the Constitution Court would consider if the request deserved deliberation by the court and then report its comments to the court.
       The timing of the trial would depend on the judges, he said.
       Parliament President Chai Chidchob yesterday said the Budget Act was con-stitutional because spending plans were changed in line with proper procedures and the House had voted for the act.
       Puea Thai's move was a political ploy and the party should stop it, he said.The Budget Act would be forwarded to the Senate for consideration and later promulgated.
       Mr Chai denied passage of the Budget Act would lead to a House dissolution.
       Recently, the parliament president said the House might be dissolved after the passage of the budget bill. But yesterday he said he had spoken only from the point of view of the opposition.

Friday, August 28, 2009

Can the Democratic Party turn Japan around?

       Japan might be standing at a turning point in its history as parliamentary elections appear likely to unseat the party that has ruled Japan nearly continuously for more than 50 years.
       With judgement day this Sunday, the main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), is leading in the latest opinion polls with 36% voter support. The figure is 20 points higher than that for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
       Voters have increasingly becoming dissatisfied with the coalition government of the LDP and the New Komeito party after it went through three prime ministers in three years; current Prime Minister Taro Aso failed to demonstrate strong leadership, his administration neglected to deal with long-term economic problems, a series of scandals rocked the LDP and the party failed to address domestic concerns, such as Japan's strained pension system and its ageing, shrinking population.
       Many analysts said the DPJ, which won control of the upper House of Councillors in 2007 elections, has a good chance of repeating that victory on Sunday for the House of Representatives by securing a majority of 241 seats or more in the more powerful, lower chamber of the Diet. Such a result would more than double the 112 seats the party now holds.
       DPJ president Yukio Hatoyama, who is likely to become prime minister if his party wins, has promised voters he would bring change to Japan by cutting wasteful spending but not imposing a burden on citizens to pay back the national debt,which, at about 800 trillion yen (US$8.5 trillion), exceeds 160% of the nation's gross domestic product.
       Mr Hatoyama also has vowed to revitalise the world's second-largest economy by increasing household incomes and encouraging spending.
       Voters are hopeful, but the promises sound too good to be true to political observers, and the DPJ faces numerous obstacles to bringing about the change it has promised for Japan.
       Some analysts have criticised the party's economic stimulus plan to draw Japan out of its worst post-war economic slump as being unrealistic.
       While Mr Hatoyama said he plans to review the current government's recordhigh stimulus package, his party's manifesto promises to raise monthly child allowances for children, scrap expressway tolls and gasoline taxes as part of its plan to stimulate consumer spending.
       It said it could secure funds for its proposed programmes by cutting public works projects and increasing domestic demand while at the same time holding off on a sales tax hike for the next four years.
       The LDP has questioned how the DPJ's proposals would be paid for, called them a "pipe dream" and said they would require "magic" to be realised.
       Analysts and the LDP also warned of the DPJ's lack of experience in running the government.
       Only a handful of party members have experience serving in ministerial posts or in the prime minister's office. The party is largely made up of LDP defectors,Social Democrats and former trade unionists.
       "The DPJ has many young, brilliant candidates," political analyst Takao Toshikawa said,"but the party does not have enough competent personnel."
       The DPJ's most experienced, foremost strategist is former party leader and seasoned politician Ichiro Ozawa, who stepped down in May amid a political funding scandal.
       His successor, Mr Hatoyama, has also found himself entangled in the ongoing investigation of the donation scandal,in which his office used deceased people's names to report about 22 million yen ($239,000) in contributions made from 2005 to 2009.
       Even though Mr Ozawa, who left the LDP in frustration over the party's inability to reform, gave up the DPJ's top post, his influence within the party remains strong, analysts said - enough that he might act as "a shadow shogun"to Mr Hatoyama if the party takes power.
       "Hatoyama doesn't have enough experience and stratagem compared with Ozawa," Mr Toshikawa said.
       Mr Ozawa's reputation of being a shrewd manipulator and his success and experience in the kind of backroom politics the voters now abhor may prove as big a burden to the DPJ as his experience is a boon.
       A third issue for the DPJ should it win is how it would deal with Japan's powerful bureaucrats, who have a close relationship with the LDP and helped keep that party in power for so long.
       Mr Hatoyama has argued that politics in Japan is led by its bureaucrats rather than its politicians. The 62-year-old centrist has vowed to wrest control of the budget and policy from Japan's ministries - a job that political observers said would be a monumental one and would also determine the success of a DPJ-led government.
       However, the only non-LDP governments to run Japan since 1955 lasted less than a year in the 1990s, in part because of bureaucratic resistance to their policies. Even the popular, reformminded LDP premier Junichiro Koizumi,who left office in 2006, found it difficult to push change past the entrenched civil service.
       While disgruntlement among voters could hand the DPJ an election victory and bring about a historic change in Japan's government, it would far from ensure DPJ-touted reforms.

US prepares days of mourning

       The family of Edward Kennedy prepared yesterday to accompany his body on its final journey, as Americans mourned the end of a dynasty that dominated US politics for a generation.
       All government buildings lowered the Stars and Stripes to half-mast, as did private homes in the Massachusetts seaside resort of Hyannis Port, where the veteran US senator died on Tuesday at his family compound aged 77.
       President Barack Obama led tributes from across the US political spectrum and around the world, saying "the outpouring of love, gratitude and fond memories which we have all witnessed is a testimony to the way this singular figure in American history touched so many lives".
       Family members prepared to begin celebrations of a life touched by tragedy,scandals and ultimately success by escorting his coffin yesterday in a cortege to his home city of Boston following a private Mass.
       His body was to lie in state at the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library ahead of a Catholic funeral Mass tomorrow during which Mr Obama will eulogise the lion that roars no more.
       Later that day, the Democratic Party giant was to be buried at Arlington National Cemetery on a Virginia hillside overlooking Washington, alongside his slain brothers. Mr Obama was not expected to attend the burial.
       The man dubbed the "liberal lion"of the Senate, where he served for 47 years, died after battling brain cancer.
       His disappearance ended his family's half-century-long dominance of the Democratic Party and robbed Mr Obama of a crucial ally in an uphill battle to reform the US healthcare system.
       It was the eldest brother - Joe that father, millionaire businessman Joseph Kennedy had originally intended for political greatness. But that dream was cut short when he died aged only 29 during a World War Two bombing mission.
       Many had thought Kennedy destined for the highest office after his brothers were assassinated - first president John F. Kennedy in 1963, then senator Robert F. Kennedy, as he campaigned for the presidency in 1968.
       But personal scandal - and a reputation for drinking and womanising -got in the way of the youngest Kennedy brother's White House ambitions, chiefly the 1969 death of Mary Jo Kopechne.
       The campaign worker was in Kennedy's car when he drove off a bridge at Chappaquiddick, Massachusetts, and fled the scene of the crash.
       Yet in the end, the man who was often in the crosshairs of conservatives for championing progressive causes earned the respect of former foes.
       More than 100 journalists and ranks of trucks with satellite dishes besieged the sprawling beachfront residence that served as Cape Cod headquarters for the Kennedy clan as strong winds whipped through the moored yachts.
       An emotional Ana Lages, a chemical engineer from Cambridge, Massachusetts, placed flowers at the police line.
       Kennedy, who long fought for immigrants' rights, had helped her get a green card 30 years ago, she said.
       "I'm very grateful to him," she said.While not sharing his left-leaning politics, she admired "a man who helped so many people".
       Interrupting his vacation on Martha's Vineyard, just across the Nantucket Sound from Hyannis Port, Mr Obama pledged that "the extraordinary good that he did lives on".
       Kennedy would have been a valuable ally to Mr Obama, who owed his meteoric rise to the White House last year in part to the senator's stunning endorsement. He was renowned for his legislative skills and just last year described bringing health coverage to the 47 million uninsured Americans as "the cause of my life".

Japan media predicts ruling LDP faces rout

       Japan's opposition Democratic Party looks set for a landslide victory in an election on Sunday, polls show, ending over five decades of almost unbroken rule by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
       Yukio Hatoyama's Democrats have promised to focus spending on households, cut waste and wrest control of policy from the hands of bureaucrats,a shift from the business-friendly LDP.
       Japanese media predict the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will win,ending a deadlock in parliament where the party and its allies control the less powerful upper chamber.
       Financial markets would generally welcome the prospect of smoother policy-making as Japan tries to revive its economy and deal with the challenges of an ageing, shrinking population. But some analysts worry the DPJ's ambitious spending plans could inflate already sky-high public debt and push up long-term interest rates.
       If the DPJ win a two-thirds majority in the 480-seat lower house, they could enact laws rejected by the upper chamber. That is unlikely to be necessary soon, but would be key if the LDP and its partner win an upper house poll in the middle of next year. Even if the Democrats win a majority, they would need help from the small leftist Social Democratic Party and conservative People's New Party to pass bills smoothly. But a bigger Democratic majority means they would have to pay less attention to their allies, making policy formation easier.
       Too big a win, however, could make managing the party harder.
       A victorious Democratic government would quickly focus on keeping voter support ahead of the 2010 upper house poll, probably by keeping pledges to boost household incomes.
       But the government could be distracted if opponents zero in on a scandal in which Mr Hatoyama's aide reported donations from people who turned out to be dead.
       If the Democratic Party falls short of a majority, it could still take power by forming a coalition with two smaller allies. That would mean it would need to listen more to the Social Democrats and the People's New Party, and the coalition could could have trouble agreeing on policies, especially in the areas of security and diplomacy, where differences are most acute. If the Democrats stumble in the final days and the margin of victory on either side is very small, the LDP and Democrats would each try to woo defectors or small parties to form a coalition.
       The LDP has sought to lure back conservative voters with charges that the Democrats are spendthrift, weak on security and unpatriotic.
       Forecasts for a landslide opposition victory could also prompt some riskaverse voters to opt for the LDP,although analysts said there were few signs that this was occurring.
       A fuzzy outcome would delay the formation of a new government,although parliament must meet to elect a prime minister within 30 days.
       Policy implementation would be difficult, since lawmakers might not necessarily vie for power along clear policy lines. Opinion polls suggest this is unlikely and if the LDP and its junior partner stay in power, they will almost certainly lose the two-thirds majority that has enabled them to enact laws rejected by the opposition-controlled upper chamber.
       The policy stalemate would worsen,at least until the 2010 upper house poll. If the deadlock dragged on, the idea of a "grand coalition" among ruling and opposition blocs could be revived as a way to break the deadlock.
       One of Prime Minister Taro Aso's predecessors, Yasuo Fukuda, tried to form such a coalition with then-DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa, but Mr Ozawa's party reject the notion.

Puea Thai fails to halt budget debate

       House Speaker Chai Chidchob has refused to accept an application by Puea Thai Party lawmakers to delay the deliberation of the annual budget bill proposed by the government.
       Puea Thai MP for Chaiyaphum Charoen Chankomol yesterday asked the speaker to postpone debate on the budget bill because a special House committee did not present details of changes it had made, in which the 2010 budget was to be cut by 22 billion baht to 1.7 trillion baht.
       Mr Charoen said the House could not scrutinise the changes without the details.
       He also questioned the transparency of the changes which the committee had made.
       But the speaker argued that a report on the changes might not be necessary because the special House committee was made up of MPs from both government and opposition parties.
       Yesterday the Puea Thai Party also threatened to seek a Constitution Court ruling on the constitutionality of holding the debate.
       MP Surapong Towijakchaikul said the committee's failure to present details of its changes could be in violation of Article 167 of the constitution.
       Mr Surapong said the opposition would seek a ruling from the court.
       Two days have been set aside for the 2010 budget bill debate, which started yesterday.
       The vote on the bill was set for today but delays have forced the vote to be postponed until next week.
       Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said he was sure the government would have the bill passed.He brushed aside reports that six ministers from the coalition Bhumjaithai Party would abstain from voting.
       The ministers claim they feared their votes could be ruled unconstitutional because they might have a conflict o f interest.
       Mr Suthep said even if they did not vote, the government would still have enough votes to have the bill passed.